How Iran and Ukraine are strategically sinking their rivals at sea

Iran and Ukraine have been employing strategic techniques to weaken their adversaries at sea, causing significant damage to the US and Russia's naval fleets. Through a combination of tactics, these nations have managed to keep superior fleets at bay, dealing substantial blows to their rivals.

Iran's strategic outcome in the conflict is increasingly being decided at sea, rather than through direct battlefield confrontations. While Washington may opt for a ground intervention, broader attacks on Iran's critical infrastructure, or a strike against the nuclear-linked complex at Pickaxe Mountain in Isfahan province, none of these options are likely to completely eliminate Iran's maritime capabilities or render the Strait of Hormuz strategically irrelevant.

In November 2025, Ukrainian authorities released images showing sea drone attacks on oil tankers in the Black Sea, demonstrating the effectiveness of this maritime strategy. Iran's ability to maintain coercive leverage at sea has been instrumental in preserving the resilience of its institutions, despite the shock, decapitation, and bombardment it has faced.

The strategy employed by Iran involves a range of tactics, including mined routes, controlled passage, slowed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and warnings to vessels using unauthorized corridors. The threat of a maritime bill for any air campaign against Iran also adds to the financial burden faced by Washington, Gulf capitals, insurers, and global energy markets.

The US and Israeli administrations failed to force Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to comply with the late Ruhollah Khomeini's "chalice of poison" demand. This failure can be seen as a strategic victory for Iran, as it allowed the country to continue its maritime tactics and maintain its bargaining power.

The Iran war has exposed the gap between operational dominance and strategic victory. While American and Israeli airpower can cause damage to Iran's air forces, fixed infrastructure, and senior figures, regime collapse, missile disarmament, and military incapacitation have not occurred. The ground forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular army, known as the Artesh, remain solid, and the part of Iran's force design least dependent on pristine airspace - its littoral naval and missile-drone complex - retains both coercive value and combat effectiveness.