Exclusive-Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200 billion 2028 revenue forecast, sources say

Anthropic, the AI company, is set to have one of the biggest IPOs, with its valuation based on projected 2028 revenue of $190-200 billion. This figure, reported by two sources, far exceeds the company's current revenue run rate of $47 billion, as reported in May. The projected revenue is significantly higher than the rate, indicating the rapid growth expected in the company.

Investors are basing their projections on revenue multiples, a common practice for high-growth software companies. The company is known for its heavy investment in AI infrastructure, which is reflected in its spending and challenges in setting benchmarks for a company still in its growth phase. The approach used for Anthropic's valuation is similar to that of other fast-growing companies like Cerebras Systems and SpaceX, which have also used two to three-year revenue forecasts for their IPO valuations.

The investors are betting on Anthropic's growth rate outpacing its costs, allowing for expanding margins. Public-market comparables like Cloudflare, Palantir, and SpaceX are being used to determine the appropriate valuation for Anthropic.