Why Putin Chose the Kurils Now – and What It Means for Ukraine

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, tensions between Moscow and Tokyo have escalated significantly. As the conflict progressed, Japan joined Western sanctions against Russia and became a crucial supporter for Ukraine in Asia. In response, Moscow suspended peace talks and halted programs enabling former Japanese residents to visit the disputed islands, which Tokyo refers to as its Northern Territories.

Despite these actions, Japan persisted in trying to maintain limited diplomatic channels. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi emphasized that Japan had made every effort to preserve diplomatic relations, stating that Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Etorofu on August 13 was "absolutely unacceptable." This stance was reinforced by Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, who summoned Russian Ambassador Nikolai Nozdrev and lodged a strong protest.

The visit marked Putin's first to the Kuril chain in over 25 years in power. The reason for Putin's visit and its implications for the ongoing confrontation between Russia and the West are subjects of debate. Japan's new government, led by Prime Minister Takaichi, has adopted a more assertive defense policy and recognizes Russia's military posture, China's cooperation with Russia, and the possibility of an Ukraine-like conflict in East Asia as serious security concerns.

The timing of Putin's visit, just two days before Japan commemorated the end of World War II, and the proximity to major Russian Pacific Fleet exercises, highlight the increasing pressure Japan faces from Russia, China, and North Korea. The four southern islands have remained a contentious issue since 1945, preventing the signing of a formal peace treaty.

By visiting Etorofu, Putin demonstrated that Moscow now prioritizes projecting strength over preserving diplomatic avenues, effectively abandoning earlier diplomatic constraints observed by Soviet leaders. This move also showcased Moscow's growing inclination to view its confrontation with the West as a multi-theater struggle. Japan's support for Ukraine and its role in G7 sanctions against Russia have strained relations, compelling Tokyo to balance support for Ukraine with countering security threats closer to home.

Putin further threatened retaliation against European nations seizing Russian commercial ships, potentially extending Ukraine-related maritime confrontations into the Pacific. Additionally, the deepening relationship between Russia, China, and North Korea has further complicated the regional dynamics. After Putin's visit, both Russian and Chinese diplomats defended the post-World War II territorial order, reinforcing Beijing's alignment with Moscow's perspective on post-WWII borders.

North Korea, meanwhile, has gained military experience through its involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine and has strengthened its ties with Moscow. Despite differing interests, these nations' actions increasingly mirror one another. Putin's Kuril visit, coupled with Pacific naval drills and North Korea's missile test, underscores how Russia's war has evolved into a broader challenge to the Western-led order.

By undermining any near-term prospect of territorial negotiations with Japan, Putin demonstrated Russia's ability to pressure Ukraine's allies beyond Europe. The visit also revealed Russia's capacity to create pressure on Ukraine's partners in the Pacific, testing the response of Washington and its Asian allies in a region where US military resources are already stretched across multiple security challenges.

For Japan, the visit underscores that Russia's war against Ukraine, North Korea's growing military power, and China's pressure cannot be treated as separate threats; they are becoming part of the same security problem.