Russia May Intensify Hybrid Attacks Against Baltic States and Poland

Russia may ramp up hybrid attacks against the Baltic states and Poland, according to a European intelligence source cited by Bloomberg. Intelligence and security agencies are reportedly exploring potential hybrid warfare tactics, such as infrastructure sabotage and false-flag operations. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency has notified regionally located countries of the potential for a future Russian assault, though the CIA has not commented on the matter.

The official cautioned that Russia could merely be attempting to generate the perception of escalating threats in Europe as part of an information campaign aimed at instilling fear. There is currently no evidence suggesting Russia is plotting a conventional invasion or attack. Experts believe Moscow has significantly expanded its so-called "shadow war" against Europe since the onset of the full-scale Ukrainian invasion in 2022, with Russian-linked hybrid attacks in the region quadrupling between 2022 and 2023 and tripling again between 2023 and 2024.

While data on these incidents is scarce, the U.S. Helsinki Commission has identified around 150 hybrid operations across NATO countries from February 2022 to November 2024, likely linked to Russia. The warnings follow broader concerns over Moscow testing NATO's resolve, with the Wall Street Journal previously reporting that Russian President Vladimir Putin may seek to challenge the alliance by launching a limited attack against a NATO member state within the next few years.