Nigerians are betting millions on the Osun State election — and the majority are backing Adeleke

The Osun State gubernatorial election is set to take place soon and is attracting increasing attention from Nigerians. With two leading candidates, Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party and Bola Oyebamiji of the APC, the race is intensifying. Bayse Markets, Africa's largest Prediction Market, has introduced a market tied to the Osun State election, allowing traders to buy and sell shares based on their predictions of the outcome.

This marks the first time Nigerians are heavily engaging with prediction markets for a political election in the country's history. Millions are now being traded on this gubernatorial election, signaling growing adoption of political prediction markets among Nigerians. Notably, one trader named "ayo_folarin" has placed ₦4.8 million with a potential payout of ₦17 million if Oyebamiji wins, while another trader has committed ₦5 million to Adeleke.

Prediction markets are not merely a form of betting; they have proven valuable in gauging political sentiments and reflecting changing expectations around elections in real-time. These markets gained prominence during the 2024 US presidential election, becoming a key source of election forecasting. The concept is straightforward: unlike polls that ask people what they think will happen, prediction markets require participants to put money behind their views.

Traders have financial incentives to make informed decisions, and as new information emerges, market prices shift, continuously updating the collective view of the race. Currently, Adeleke is priced at a 69% chance of winning the election on Bayse, making him the market favorite. This is the first time Nigerians are engaging extensively with prediction markets around a political election.

With upcoming state elections, party primaries, and the 2027 general elections, Bayse Markets is at the forefront of a burgeoning prediction market culture in Nigeria. The true test will be on election day, as the market's accuracy could bolster its case as a new way to understand political sentiment in Nigeria. Regardless of the outcome, the millions already being traded demonstrate that Nigerians are increasingly placing their political beliefs behind real money, marking the beginning of a new engagement with elections in the country.