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Knowing When to Stop: Bayesian Optimal Stopping for LLM Evaluations

LLM evaluations often use fixed sampling budgets, testing every item the same number of times even after estimates are precise. We introduce optstop, a precision-based adaptive stopping framework that treats evaluation as a sequential measurement problem: keep sampling where uncertainty remains high, and stop where estimates are precise or stable enough. The framework builds on hierarchical…

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The Dynamics of Intelligence Explosions

AI is increasingly being used to help with AI R&D. Under certain conditions this feedback loop might be able to produce an intelligence explosion, with rapidly escalating AI capabilities.

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