ICPAC: Counties face tough choices as Kenya’s dry conditions worsen

Kenyan counties grapple with mounting challenges as rainfall deficits intensify in western regions, according to a new warning from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). The August 10, 2026 advisory highlights a growing need for early action to safeguard agriculture, livestock, water resources, and vulnerable livelihoods.

The warning follows the government’s decision to place 18 counties on heightened alert for risks ranging from drought and livestock losses to food insecurity. ICPAC’s Climate Watch Advisory notes persistent rainfall deficits from May through July across the northern Eastern Africa region, extending into parts of western Kenya. The advisory underscores widespread soil moisture deficits, vegetation stress, or a combination of both, signaling environmental strain.

This places county governments under pressure to swiftly implement practical measures to mitigate the escalating risks. The forecast suggests an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across western Kenya, with potential impacts spanning agriculture, food security, water resources, livestock production, public health, and livelihoods.

Counties like Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot, and Narok face a mix of drought, flash floods, landslides, livestock losses, and food insecurity, while Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera confront risks including drought, water scarcity, livestock losses, poor pasture, and food insecurity. As El Niño conditions intensify, the existing rainfall deficits are expected to worsen, exacerbating the already deteriorating conditions.

Agriculture and livestock sectors are particularly vulnerable, with prolonged moisture shortages threatening crop development, pasture availability, and animal survival. County governments must thus adapt preparedness strategies to address both the immediate threat of dry conditions and the potential for intense rainfall later in the year.

The government’s early-warning system aims to prevent a shift from preparedness to crisis response, emphasizing the critical role of timely information in safeguarding communities and infrastructure.