Congress Is Headed for a Massive Turnover

The 120th Congress is anticipated to witness a significant shift in its composition, with an unusually high number of newcomers joining the ranks of lawmakers. Ahead of the November elections, a total of 83 incumbents in both the U.S. House and the Senate are set to step down from their positions. Even before the beginning of the 119th Congress in January 2025, there were a few resignations and deaths, but the turnover expected at the end of the term will be more substantial.

Various factors contribute to this anticipated turnover. Some members have opted to retire after a long tenure, while others have pursued different roles. Additionally, a higher-than-usual number of lawmakers have lost primaries. As of July, the number of lawmakers not seeking reelection has reached its highest level since 2000, according to Ballotpedia.

In the House, 70 sitting representatives, consisting of 30 Democrats and 40 Republicans, have announced their decisions not to return for another term. In the Senate, 13 incumbents, including one appointed in March to replace the seat vacated by then-Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, have also expressed their intention not to return. This count does not include the 16 lawmakers who have resigned or passed away during the 119th Congress.

Some notable retirements include Republicans Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, while Democrats Dick Durbin of Illinois, Gary Peters of Michigan, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, and Tina Smith of Minnesota have also announced their retirements. On the House side, 32 representatives are expected to retire, with Nancy Pelosi, the former Speaker, being among them.