[Column] How will the US uphold deterrence when it runs out of weapons?

The United States is facing a weapon stockpile crisis, a result of wars in Iran and the growing tensions with China. This crisis exposes the limitations of the US military, which is no longer capable of enduring prolonged conflicts. In the past year, the US military has depleted a significant portion of its prewar stock of guided armaments in the Iran conflict.

Analysts estimate that for some critical weapon systems, the attrition rate may be more than half. Restoring reserves to prewar levels could take up to three years for some weapon systems, and until the early 2030s for others.

The US' munitions stockpile was already insufficient for a major war with China before the war with Iran. The just-in-time production system used in the post-Cold War years, designed to increase efficiency and cut costs, has proven ineffective in a protracted, multifront conflict between great powers. Bottlenecks in solid rocket motors, advanced missile seekers, specialized cast components, and skilled labor pose significant challenges.

Moreover, the US relies on overseas supply chains for semiconductors and rare earths, which are essential for cutting-edge precision weaponry.

Adversaries have already exploited the US' growing weakness. Iran has increased its resistance since abandoning air strikes, presenting six tough demands to the US. Russia's war against Ukraine highlights the consequences of depleted American strength, with Russia targeting Ukraine's air defenses made vulnerable by the exhaustion of Patriot interceptors.

These developments also have major implications for the Asia-Pacific region. In response, Washington may scale back its Indo-Pacific strategy to a more selective approach, focusing resources on limited interventions. However, this may leave the US military unable to deploy overwhelming conventional forces on all fronts in the event of simultaneous crises.

This situation raises questions about the ROK-US alliance and the US' nuclear umbrella, which may not fully compensate for the gaps in national security.