Ânima reporta evasão em alta, mas diz que o pior já passou

Ânima Educação reported a second quarter with significant operational challenges, including a high dropout rate, particularly in the 'core' (in-person and hybrid) and digital segments. This decline was due to the new regulatory framework for the EAD (Distance Education). Despite this, the company managed to offset the loss of volume by increasing the average ticket price, which rose in all three segments, resulting in a top line expansion.

The net revenue for the quarter grew by 4.4% to R$1.05 billion, in line with market expectations, but a slowdown compared to the first quarter when it grew by 7.7%. The growth was mainly driven by higher monthly fees. The 'core' ticket grew by 7.4%; the digital, by 4.2%, and Inspirali's (the medical courses vertical), by 6.5%. However, the student base fell by 9.1% to 348,000, with a decrease in dropouts in 'core' courses (4.4% drop in total students) and a sharp decline of 18.1% in the digital segment.

The CEO, Paula Harraca, attributed the increase in dropouts to operational challenges faced by the company, which she and her team quickly addressed. She also mentioned that the company is experiencing more first-time students (a group that is more likely to drop out) and is expanding into the hybrid modality, which has a higher dropout rate than in-person learning.

The digital segment's decline was also due to a new regulatory framework that banned health, engineering, and pedagogy courses from being offered entirely online. The company had no health courses in digital but did in engineering and pedagogy. Regarding the digital segment, Harraca stated that the company is focusing on repositioning the courses, seeking a quality differentiation to avoid the "red zone" the market has turned into.

"We are positioning the product in a higher price range, and to do that, we are making a significant quality improvement for the student to perceive more value," she said. "The price war doesn't fit our brand." In the quarter, Ânima reported an adjusted EBITDA of R$383 million, slightly above consensus, and a net profit of R$29.1 million, slightly below expectations.

The cash generation was R$149 million, and the leverage ratio closed at 2.41x EBITDA, compared to 2.39x in the previous quarter. The results came about a month after Ânima announced the acquisition of FMU, a move that shocked the market with criticism over the paid valuation (3x the company's multiple on the stock exchange) and the increase in leverage.

With the incorporation closing, leverage is expected to rise to 2.7x EBITDA. Since the announcement on July 14, the company's shares have lost 27%, with the stock valued at R$820 million on the stock exchange. The CFO, Átila Simões, said the market overreacted. "The market is very sensitive and sees only a monotonous samba of unwinding leverage.

They don't understand the long-term and our ability to unlock value and generate synergies. Now it's up to us to show the market that we are wrong and that every centavo of leverage increase now will be returned with cash generation in the future."