WTI Price Forecast: Prolonged energy supply concerns remain key tailwind

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures prices rose by 0.5% on Thursday, trading around $82.10 during Europe's trading session. Concerns about a prolonged energy supply disruption are driving oil prices higher, as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to affect the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for one-fifth of global energy supply.

Shipping traffic through the Hormuz has dropped significantly, with only six vessels recorded on August 10, down from an average of 11 ships over a recent 10-day period. This decline is starkly in contrast to pre-war levels of 130 to 140 ships daily. US President Donald Trump claimed full control of the Hormuz, stating the American naval presence acts as a "wall of steel".

OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for the year to 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the earlier estimate of 780,000 bpd. WTI US Oil is trading above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80.07, indicating a near-term bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (14) is slightly above neutral, suggesting steady rather than aggressive bullish momentum.

The oil price has recently retraced 61.8% of its swing from July 2's low of $67.09 to its July 23 high of $92.25. Initial resistance for WTI lies at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $82.54, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $86.11. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-day EMA at $80.07, with stronger structural demand around the 50.0% retracement at $79.65.

A break below this level could expose deeper Fibonacci supports at $76.75 and $72.64, with the $67.40 low remaining a major bearish target if the bullish structure fails decisively.