US colleges brace for 9.5% foreign student drop; why Indians may feel the impact

U.S. colleges are bracing for a significant decline in foreign student enrollment, with an estimated 9.5% drop from roughly 11.69 lakh international students in the 2025-26 academic year to around 10.57 lakh in Fall 2026, according to a recent analysis by NAFSA and JB International, a non-profit organization of educators. This projected reduction could result in the loss of about $3.4 billion in economic activity and put around 39,000 jobs at risk across U.S. communities.

The decline is attributed to tighter visa rules and shifting immigration policies under the Trump administration. International students contribute significantly to the U.S. economy, with an estimated $41.8 billion added to the economy in the 2025-26 academic year. India, being the largest source of foreign students in the U.S., is among the countries that will be affected by the changing landscape. Nearly 3.63 lakh Indian students were enrolled in American colleges and universities in the 2024-25 academic year.

Key factors driving the decline include reduced demand, visa bans, limited appointment availability, and policy and regulatory uncertainty. The U.S. State Department's prioritization of visa issuance for FIFA World Cup 2026 ticket holders over students has also contributed to the enrollment concerns. According to Fanta Aw, CEO of NAFSA, the association's projection highlights the impact of U.S. policy and regulations on where international students choose to invest their future, and the significant short- and long-term consequences for U.S. society and economy.