Rapid warming may tip Atlantic circulation at 2°C, while slower warming may avert collapse
For several years, climate scientists have shown that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could come to a halt if the world warms too much. New research from Utrecht University shows that this picture is incomplete: The pace of warming also determines whether the AMOC stays stable.
A new study from Utrecht University shows that the pace of global warming plays a crucial role in determining whether the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remains stable or collapses. AMOC is a system of ocean currents that transport warm water from the tropics northward, redistributing heat and keeping Western Europe relatively mild.
While previous research suggested that the AMOC could collapse around +4°C of warming, the Utrecht researchers found that the rate of warming also matters. In their simulations, the AMOC remained stable well beyond +4°C under slow warming (0.5 ppm CO2 increase per year), but collapsed at around +2°C under fast warming (2.5 ppm CO2 increase per year).
The researchers suggest that limiting the rate of global warming may reduce the near-term risk of an AMOC collapse, even during temporary temperature overshoots. This finding has implications for climate policy, as it suggests that focusing solely on limiting the eventual peak temperature may be insufficient.
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