Pollsters missed again in Wisconsin. Here's why.
Pollsters appeared to blow another high-stakes Midwest election Tuesday, as center-left Democrat David Crowley stunned socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's primary for governor. But on Wednesday, the reasons for the miss seemed clear: Surveys a week before the primary captured only a hint of a rapidly changing roller coaster of a race in which Crowley was gaining fast, and Hong was playing…
Pollsters missed another high-stakes Midwest election in Wisconsin, as Democrat David Crowley defeated socialist Francesca Hong in the gubernatorial primary. Initial polls indicated Hong was ahead by around 20 points, but Crowley ultimately won by just half a percentage point in an unexpected upset. This followed a series of primary victories by left-wing Democrats this spring.
The miss highlights the limitations of surveys in capturing voters' feelings over a short period in a long race. In the final days, Hong's campaign struggled to explain her past comments, while Crowley capitalized on his growing support and endorsements from Democratic Governor Tony Evers. The chaotic final month saw two candidates drop out and Hong ultimately failing to air TV ads during the campaign's stretch run, limiting her ability to counter negative attacks.
Analysts noted that polling is a snapshot in time, and models for open primaries, in which voters can participate in either party's contest, are particularly challenging.
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