Pete Hegseth Odds of Trump Admin Exit Amid USS Lincoln, Munitions Backlash
Prediction markets think the defense secretary will remain in the Trump administration despite increased scrutiny.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has faced several controversies, including a month-long crisis on the USS Abraham Lincoln and concerns over dwindling munitions stockpiles, has a relatively low likelihood of being removed from the Trump administration in the near future, according to prediction markets. Kalshi, a market, currently gives him a 4.8% chance of leaving by September 1, up nearly a point from previous trading.
Polymarket, a different market, is more cautious with Hegseth's odds at 24% for leaving by year's end and just 3% for August 31. Hegseth is the least popular member of President Donald Trump's Cabinet, with a net approval rating of -22, according to a CNN analysis. The USS Abraham Lincoln crisis and munitions dispute have further strained his position, but prediction markets still see a low chance of him stepping down soon.
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