Nearly 200-country study shows China’s Belt and Road Initiative cuts debt and corruption
A study analysing data from hundreds of countries and regions suggests China’s Belt and Road Initiative is linked to better governance and economic development, according to researchers from Nanjing University. They found the trade and investment scheme – which spans Africa, Asia, Europe and beyond – was also associated with improved corruption control and that it reduced debt risks. The team –…
A recent study conducted by researchers from Nanjing University has found that China's Belt and Road Initiative has contributed to better governance, economic development, and reduced debt risks. The initiative, which spans multiple continents, was analyzed by examining data from 197 countries over the period of 2000 to 2023. The study, published in the peer-reviewed Chinese journal Quarterly Journal of International Politics, suggests that the Belt and Road Initiative has been linked to improved corruption control, better political stability, and enhanced government effectiveness.
The researchers, led by Mao Weizhun from the Centre for Asia-Pacific Development Studies, challenge the common criticisms that the trade and infrastructure initiative is a "failure," a "vulnerability trap," or a "debt trap." According to their findings, the projects under the Belt and Road Initiative have strengthened economic growth, state capacity, and social stability.
The infrastructure projects have facilitated better connectivity, provided more public services, and created economic opportunities, particularly in developing countries.
The study found that nations that received Belt and Road infrastructure investment experienced improvements in corruption control, government effectiveness, and overall governance. The researchers noted that the infrastructure projects were not merely about building roads, ports, power plants, and communication networks, but also about strengthening the government's ability to allocate resources and provide public services.
They emphasized that the benefits of the infrastructure projects went beyond economic growth by helping governments maintain order, integrate remote regions, and improve institutional effectiveness.
Furthermore, the analysis revealed that Chinese-funded infrastructure projects did not increase debt risks. Instead, the projects improved logistics, expanded production capacity, and generated additional revenue, which improved debt repayment capacity and reduced the debt burden of participating countries. The researchers used statistical modeling to examine the countries across three stages: when they joined the Belt and Road Initiative, when work began on infrastructure projects, and when the projects were completed and put into operation.
They found a significant negative coefficient in the second and third stages, debunking the "debt trap" argument.
The researchers concluded that large-scale infrastructure construction not only brings direct economic benefits to participating countries but also optimizes their economic structures and strengthens their independent development capacity. They cited examples such as the China-Laos Railway, the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to illustrate how Belt and Road infrastructure projects have improved regional connectivity, attracted investment, and supported industrial growth.
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