Unpacking Saraki/PDP’s ‘feel good’ Analysis

In a critical analysis of Kwara politics, writer Suleiman Ibrahim points out that much of the coverage is superficial and lacking in depth. Many pieces fail to consider all the variables and often paint an inaccurate picture. Some writers even predicted in May 2026 that APC would secure Kwara's governorship before the election, implying that Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq was already weakened.

However, Ibrahim argues that the political landscape remains dominated by AbdulRazaq. Only a few, such as Senator Salihu Mustapha and Ambassador Yahya Seriki, have benefited from Razaq's support. Eight out of ten individuals opposing Razaq did not do so in 2023, yet he still managed to win across the board. Opposition leaders in the South, North, and Central never campaigned for him during the 2023 election.

Ibrahim questions the loyalty of Saraki's supporters, noting that many key figures within his camp, particularly in the North, have since left the party. Even in the South, four prominent allies were no longer with Saraki by 2023. In Central, several of Saraki's field commanders had also left the party.

The situation appears dire for Saraki's political future, with over 70% of his electoral tickets held by individuals who have publicly stated they are waiting for more suitable candidates. This lack of viable candidates raises doubts about Saraki's readiness for the upcoming election. The G15 members, who have pledged their support to the President, are seen as rebelling against the party's decision to field a ticket, rather than opposing Razaq directly.

The National Headquarters of the APC and President are likely to view G15's actions as a betrayal of the party's collective decision-making process.