'No cards' left? Inside Ukraine's war on Russia

In February 2025, during the third year of a brutal war, a highly-charged meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy devolved into a public altercation in the Oval Office. Following the confrontation, Ukraine was asked to leave the White House and Washington briefly stopped sharing intelligence with Kyiv.

Over the next few months, as Russia made steady advances on the battlefield, Trump welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska and seemed prepared to negotiate an unfavorable peace deal with Kyiv, including the possible loss of territory.

Despite Zelenskyy's presence alongside Trump, Ukrainian forces were preparing their own offensive to demonstrate the country's capability and determination to wage war against Russia. This strategy would ultimately lead to a series of drone strikes targeting Russian bombers, reducing or damaging planes worth millions of dollars.

In response, Kyiv has increased its campaign of longer-range strikes inside Russia, boosted weapons production, targeted Russian air defenses, and struck oil infrastructure and major retailer warehouses to impact the lives of ordinary Russians.

The Ukrainian drone campaign has drawn significant attention from Russia, forcing authorities to scale down the May 9 military parade commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany. However, Russia has intensified its attacks in response, causing a summer fuel crisis. In the first six months of 2025, 1,396 civilians were killed in Ukraine, according to the UN, while Russian authorities reported 250 civilian deaths during the same period.

While Ukraine's efforts have shifted the narrative surrounding the war in Washington, the effectiveness of these strikes in compelling President Putin to negotiate remains uncertain. The success of these attacks depends on the extent of pain inflicted on Russia, and it remains to be seen if Ukraine can reach the threshold required for such an outcome. This success, however, hinges on various factors beyond Ukraine's control, such as continued European financial support.