NBA win-total predictions: How will OKC Thunder fare in Western Conference?

The 2026-27 NBA season begins in October, and the Western Conference boasts a competitive lineup of teams. The San Antonio Spurs, who clinched last season's championship, are in contention for the top spot, while the Oklahoma City Thunder aim to reclaim their previous title. Teams such as Denver, Minnesota, and Houston also vie for the Western Conference lead.

BetMGM has provided win total predictions for each Western Conference team this season. Here's a look at projected win totals for the Western Conference teams, and whether I believe they'll exceed that number.

For the Oklahoma City Thunder, the prediction is to win over 60.5 games. Despite significant absences due to injuries to Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Ajay Mitchell, the Thunder still have the star power and depth to contend as a 60-win team. As long as they remain healthy, the Thunder have the potential to be a strong contender.

The San Antonio Spurs are expected to surpass their projected win total of 59.5 games. With a young core led by Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper, and a return of veteran wing Tobias Harris, the Spurs remain one of the league's top title contenders. Their projections call for a 61-21 record.

The Denver Nuggets, who aim to retain their title, have a projected win total of 49.5 games. Despite the potential loss of restricted free agent Peyton Watson, the Nuggets still possess a formidable trio of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon. A successful title run is still within reach for the Nuggets.

The Minnesota Timberwolves project a win total of 49.5 games for the upcoming season. The Timberwolves' acquisition of LaMelo Ball, a dynamic scorer and playmaker, will form a dangerous duo with Anthony Edwards. While concerns about depth and frontcourt play persist, the Timberwolves are expected to maintain a strong defense and enhanced scoring variety.

The Houston Rockets anticipate winning 47.5 games. The team has bolstered its backcourt with Fred VanVleet's return and the addition of Marcus Smart. Reed Sheppard, who faced a considerable role last season, will have less pressure with two former NBA champions who excel in close game situations. The Rockets' projection for the year is a 50-32 record.

The Los Angeles Lakers aim to hit 46.5 winning games. Following LeBron James' departure, the Lakers have restructured their roster by adding Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton, and Sandro Mamukelashvili. Although the Lakers lack standout point-of-attack defenders, they boast Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, who can help the team remain competitive.

The Utah Jazz are predicted to exceed their projected win total of 35.5 games. The team has a talented backcourt duo of Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson, along with positional size and depth provided by Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Ace Bailey. Although Utah lacks experience, it still has the potential for regular-season success.

The Dallas Mavericks are expected to surpass their projected win total of 34.5 games. With Kyrie Irving healthy, Cooper Flagg will have a reduced workload, and the Mavericks will have two powerful big men in Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively. The Mavericks have the shot creation, size, and defensive versatility necessary to compete in the Play-In race.

Lastly, the Phoenix Suns have a projected win total of 40.5 games. Last season, Phoenix exceeded expectations with a 45-37 record and a playoff appearance. The team then added Miles Bridges and an elite shooter, which bodes well for a successful 2026-27 season.