Is Mexico ‘next’? Why Colombia’s deadly quake doesn’t raise the seismic odds here

A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck western Colombia this week, prompting concern that Mexico may soon experience a similar major tremor. However, experts are quick to dispel the notion that the Pacific Ring of Fire is about to "activate" and send another powerful quake north.

Colombia's Geological Service confirmed that the quake was the nation's strongest since the 21st century. The death toll surpassed 200 by Tuesday as rescue efforts continued. President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico pledged support for Colombia, contingent on a formal request from Colombian authorities. Mexico offered to deploy a 255-member military search and rescue team, along with vital supplies.

While Mexico and Colombia both lie within the Pacific Ring of Fire, a 40,000km fault zone encompassing the Pacific Ocean floor, the two nations face distinct seismic risks. Colombia's activity stems from the interaction between the Nazca, South American and Caribbean plates. Mexico's primary coastal hazard comes from the Cocos Plate subducting beneath the North American Plate, with the Rivera Plate also playing a role in the west.

Scientists acknowledge that seismic waves from major earthquakes can occasionally trigger activity far from the epicenter, a phenomenon called dynamic triggering. But this means Mexico should not expect a destructive quake simply because Colombia experienced one. The ongoing series of earthquakes in Latin America does not signal that the Ring of Fire has been "activated." Earth's tectonic plates are in constant motion, accumulating and releasing stress along various faults at different depths.