Fed policy outweighs geopolitical risks, China purchases as gold forecasts retreat: survey
The US Federal Reserve’s rate policies under Kevin Warsh have outweighed geopolitical tensions and Beijing’s dedicated gold purchases to become the decisive factor influencing the price forecasts for the precious metal, according to a survey. Analysts cut their price forecasts for 2026 compared with six months ago, said the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), the world’s authority for…
The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy under Kevin Warsh has been the main driver in determining gold price forecasts, outpacing geopolitical concerns and China's gold purchases, according to a survey by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Analysts have lowered their forecasts for 2026 compared to six months ago, with the average year-end price prediction at $4,500 per ounce, down from $5,100.
Ten analysts cited the Fed's reaction to US inflation data as their primary concern, while five pointed to Iran and Middle East instability. China's gold reserves reached 76.08 million ounces by the end of July, marking the 21st month of accumulation, while South Korea announced plans to buy gold for the first time in 13 years. Global gold-backed ETFs saw inflows of $3 billion in July, reversing two months of outflows, while China's domestic gold ETF holdings rose by 28.677 tonnes in the first half of 2026, a 66.17% decrease from the previous year.
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