A transferable framework for evaluating the potential for forecast-informed reservoir operations in watersheds
With extreme weather increasing around the world, scientists are working to help critical infrastructure, such as water management systems, adapt. On the U.S. West Coast, where both periods of prolonged drought and intense atmospheric river storms are common, effective water management can be particularly tricky.
Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is a strategy that utilizes accurate weather forecasts to optimize water management in critical infrastructure. By holding water in reservoirs until forecasted wet weather arrives, it becomes possible to release water in advance of storms, preserving supplies for future dry periods. However, implementing this system depends on the availability of advanced weather and streamflow forecasts.
A new study by researchers at the Desert Research Institute (DRI) develops a framework to evaluate the feasibility of FIRO at individual reservoirs. The framework considers watershed and reservoir characteristics, as well as operational constraints, to determine the necessary forecast lead time for safe implementation. The research found that reservoirs on snowmelt-dominated rivers generally have lower operational flexibility compared to those on rain-dominated rivers.
This is because snow-dominated watersheds typically have larger storage capacities, but were not designed for rapid water releases. As climate change leads to more unpredictable wet seasons, reduced snowpacks, and increased intensity of atmospheric river storms, understanding reservoir operational flexibility becomes crucial for balancing flood protection, water supply, and other objectives.
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