Without a course change on Sudan, the outlook is bleak

Since April 2023, Sudan has been mired in a violent power struggle between its army chief and the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The country has suffered immense loss, destruction, and displacement. Recently, the United States has imposed new sanctions on Sudan's military-backed government following allegations that state forces used chemical weapons, specifically chlorine gas, against its Rapid Support Forces enemies during a 2024 battle in Bahri.

The US State Department has warned that these sanctions will limit Sudan's access to American financial support and restrict Sudanese airlines from using American airspace. Activists have called for an independent investigation into these claims, and a coalition of African human rights groups has urged Sudan to cooperate with the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons to verify these allegations.

The presence of chemical weapons in Sudan's civil war is deeply troubling and would be a disturbing step backward in the international taboo against such weapons. The Chemical Weapons Convention, which Sudan ratified in 1999, aimed to eliminate a whole category of weapons, but its near-universal adoption has not prevented their re-emergence on the battlefield.

The use of chemical weapons in Sudan's conflict could signal a normalization of such prohibited weapons, undermining the global norm against their use. Regional rights groups and civil society organizations are working to build a different narrative and advocate for a return to civilian-led governance. However, without a significant shift in Sudan's trajectory, the situation is likely to worsen, as more crimes, including the use of banned weapons, become normalized.

A durable peace in Sudan must be built by the Sudanese people themselves, who are best equipped to navigate the country's complex realities.