When to trust your intuition (and when not to)

Intuition has gained popularity in recent times, with advice to trust one's gut, body, and instincts being frequently heard in podcasts and nonfiction books. However, the term "intuition" lacks a specific label that indicates its origin. It can stem from years of experience, cognitive biases, or fear. The research suggests that much of what we perceive as intuition is actually learned information that surfaces before language catches up.

This pattern recognition operates below conscious awareness, allowing for quick answers before explanations emerge. As a cognitive process, intuition proves to be effective in certain conditions but ineffective in others. The key to utilizing intuition effectively lies in distinguishing the appropriate circumstances. Intuition differs from other emotions, such as pain and sadness, because it is entirely learned through repeated experiences.

This implicit learning occurs in the basal ganglia, the same structures responsible for skills like driving or reading through repetition. Unlike conscious memory storage, implicit learning provides a feeling rather than an explanation that can be pointed to. A limitation of implicit learning is its lack of quality control. It registers any information encountered frequently, regardless of accuracy.

In one experiment, people were shown moving dots accompanied by emotionally charged images outside their awareness. When the images reliably guided to the correct answer, people became more accurate and confident. Conversely, when the images were random, they had no impact. This highlights that intuition is only useful when it responds to reliable patterns.

Experts in high-pressure situations, such as fireground commanders, often rely on intuition. They recognize familiar situations, match them to previously successful responses, and act accordingly. However, the development of this intuition heavily depends on a fast and clear feedback loop. While firefighters have immediate feedback on their decisions, professionals like pundits, investors, or hiring managers might wait years or never receive feedback, making it challenging to calibrate their confidence.

For those looking to improve their intuition, it's crucial to differentiate an intuition from a strong emotion. Intuition should not be blindly followed or dismissed, but rather treated as information that can be evaluated. Three questions can help turn a vague feeling into a useful intuition: Is this intuition or just a strong emotion?

Have I earned this intuition through relevant experience? What kind of situation am I dealing with? By actively matching the present situation to past experiences and checking for specific warning signs, one can convert a vague feeling into a hypothesis and test it accordingly. Intuition should be considered as one input in the decision-making process, not a replacement for curiosity and experimentation.