Reclaiming the Backyard: ASEAN’s Realpolitik Push on Myanmar

In the aftermath of the February 2021 military coup, Myanmar's military junta held a series of elections that favored the military. The outcome saw the military proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party win a majority in both houses of the Union Parliament. This election was a calculated move to gain partial legitimacy from the international community while continuing the war against resistance groups.

Min Aung Hlaing, the military leader, was formally sworn in as president in April 2026. He presented the transition as a return to civilian governance, which set off a diplomatic push across neighboring countries, including India, Laos, China, and Thailand. The aim was to normalize the regime, secure border trade, and protect against Western sanctions.

This regional move was driven by each country's interest in border stability, maritime security, and economic corridors, rather than a resolution of Myanmar's internal conflicts.

Following the election, the junta made strategic concessions, such as moving Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest to a house arrest, allowing her to meet with the International Committee for the Red Cross. Min Aung Hlaing also criticized ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus, arguing that it needed to be modified. He promised to respond to any unfavorable actions by ASEAN member states "on a case-by-case basis."

Min Aung Hlaing's diplomatic tour started with India, where talks focused on maritime domain awareness, border stability, and counter-insurgency operations along their shared border. Next, he visited Laos, where he signed agreements for Mekong hydropower development and established sister-city relations. In Beijing, he was honored by President Xi Jinping and signed 18 bilateral agreements, including the endorsement of China's various initiatives.

However, Beijing withheld major financial commitments for large infrastructure projects, instead demanding security guarantees from Myanmar.

Min Aung Hlaing concluded his tour in Thailand, where he was greeted with full state honors. Thailand's approach to Myanmar is pragmatic, aimed at stabilizing border trade, enhancing intelligence sharing on organized crime, and encouraging Myanmar's reintegration into ASEAN. This visit reflects the broader ASEAN member states' strategy of pragmatic engagement, balancing the need for regional stability with their concerns about Myanmar's internal affairs.