New hurricane graphic helps people identify watch areas, doesn't change risk perception
Hurricane warnings are only effective if people understand them. A new study by Florida State University faculty members in the School of Communication in the College of Communication and Information and the Department of Geography in the College of Social Sciences and Public Policy examined an experimental forecast graphic developed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) that adds inland…
A new hurricane forecast graphic developed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) aims to better communicate inland hazards. However, a study by Florida State University researchers found that this updated graphic did not improve people's perceptions of risk or intentions to take protective action. The researchers surveyed participants in Florida and Georgia, using both the new graphic and the traditional cone of uncertainty.
While the inland-enhanced graphic helped respondents identify areas under tropical storm or hurricane watches, it did not lead to higher risk perception or plans to avoid danger. One challenge is that people often misunderstand the cone graphic, mistaking a wider cone for a bigger storm. The NHC introduced the updated graphic in 2024 to show that serious hurricane impacts often extend well beyond the coastline.
The study emphasizes that while the science behind hurricane forecasts is accurate, effective communication is crucial. The researchers suggest that people should not rely solely on the graphic and should seek local forecasts and information about expected impacts to make informed decisions about safety.
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