Models of Glacial Collapse in Antarctica Improve Predictions of Sea-Level Rise
With approximately one third of the world's population living within a day's walk of a coastline, sea-level rise poses a serious global threat. Every centimeter of sea-level rise could displace 1.5 million people, and current estimates of rise range from half a meter to 2 meters by the end of the 21st century—which means that potentially hundreds of millions of people could be affected. A more…
Accurate predictions of sea-level rise are vital for coastal communities to prepare their infrastructure. The Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is the continent's fastest-flowing glacier and the primary contributor to sea-level rise. Its connection to the Pine Island Ice Shelf, a floating edge, helps slow its movement. In 2017, a significant chunk of the ice shelf broke off, causing the glacier to speed up by 20%.
Researchers used nine years of satellite data to analyze and model how and why ice shelves collapse. Sea-level rise could displace millions of people, potentially causing conflict and requiring costly adaptation measures, especially in low- to mid-income countries. Glacial ice's complex structure and gradual damage accumulation make it challenging to model.
The Larsen B ice shelf collapsed in six weeks in 2002, accelerating the glacier's flow four to six times. Calving events, like the 2017 incident, increase the glacier's velocity, which has risen by more than 100% since 1973. The study found that the shear margins, which provide frictional resistance to the glacier, weakened after the 2017 calving event, contributing to the glacier's increased flow.
Understanding these processes is crucial for accurately projecting sea-level rise and informing coastal planning and adaptation.
Written by urgent.news from Phys.org's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
