Is The Kremlin Afraid of a Tiny Party?

Russia's Supreme Court has recently denied the Yabloko party the right to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The reason for their exclusion is the alleged violation of electoral law. Despite not having a parliamentary group in the Duma since 2003, Yabloko is actively advocating for an immediate cessation of Russia's war against Ukraine.

Many opposition figures have urged the public to vote for the party, which seeks to become one of the few public indicators of Russians who oppose the war. Former Lithuanian ambassador to Russia, Eitvydas Bajarūnas, explains in an LRT analysis that even a small percentage of Yabloko's votes could be a significant public statement against the war.

He believes that if the number of votes for Yabloko were larger than the Kremlin anticipates, it would challenge a key propaganda myth - that Russian society supports the war unanimously, with only a small opposition group. Economist Konstantin Sonin agrees and adds that Russia's election system has been flawed since 2003, making results unrepresentative.

He points out that manipulation reached such proportions that it was difficult to gauge public opinion, even during elections when choices were available. Columnist Viktor Shenderovich notes that the Kremlin had planned for Yabloko to perform poorly, but the growing anti-war sentiment has thwarted this plan. He emphasizes that the concern is not about the election results, which could be rigged, but about the party's ability to broadcast anti-war propaganda legally during the campaign.