Growth without work: The human cost of the AI revolution

In the early 2000s, India emerged as a global leader in medical transcription, thanks to the installation of fiber optic cables. Indian workers, proficient in both English and medical terminology, were able to swiftly convert dictations into well-structured reports. The time difference between the US and India provided a significant advantage, as American surgeons could dictate notes before bed, which were then typed out by Indian workers at dawn.

However, the promise of secure employment in the AI revolution has unraveled. Aakash, a 25-year-old medical transcriptionist, is among the many who have lost their jobs. In 2024, he was working as a short-term contract employee in Bengaluru when American clients began canceling their contracts or transferring them to automated platforms. Hundreds of jobs vanished almost overnight, leaving workers in uncertainty. The once bustling 3 a.m. cafeteria was now empty, and hiring had frozen.

This pattern of job displacement is widespread. In Manila, tens of thousands of Filipino transcriptionists have been displaced, while call center operators in Nairobi now face competition from chatbots. In Colombia, customer support roles have vanished into generative systems. Even jobs that seemed secure due to their creative or complex nature are now at risk.

Economists describe these roles as having high exposure and low complementarity, meaning that machines can easily replace humans, rather than enhancing their abilities.

The impact of AI extends beyond traditional transcription roles. Even highly skilled professionals are feeling the effects. Contractors working on AI products like Gemini and AI Overviews describe a sense of dread as they annotate their own obsolescence. Contrary to earlier waves of mechanization that targeted manual labor, AI now threatens the cognitive core of professional work. Even roles like bioengineers, mathematicians, and editors are at risk, with automation potentially erasing the jobs of a quarter of all workers.

The consequences of AI-driven job displacement are unevenly distributed. In India, the tech sector has shed over 500,000 jobs since 2022, with 425,000 layoffs in 2023 alone. The former CEO of HCL Technologies warned that up to 70% of IT roles could disappear. Globally, the technology sector has undergone deep workforce restructuring, with approximately 122,500 layoffs across 257 companies in 2025.

In high-income economies, 60% of jobs show significant exposure to generative AI, while in low-income economies, the figure is closer to 26%.

The shift towards AI-driven automation leaves the young, clerical workers, and those from the Global South disproportionately affected. For example, a graphic designer from Mumbai, Kamlesh Kamtekar, retrained in 3D animation only to find the market shrinking under the influence of generative tools. He had to abandon his design career and now drives an autorickshaw, a stark reminder of the broader divide AI is creating.

In high-income economies, about 60% of jobs are significantly exposed to generative AI, while in low-income economies, the exposure rate is nearly 26%.

This situation mirrors a Great Divergence, as described by the International Monetary Fund. Capital flows towards economies best equipped to deploy robots and AI, while developing countries experience temporary GDP declines and long-term challenges. The promise of IT as a pathway to a secure middle-class life is unraveling, leaving many behind in the wake of technological change.