A strong China is the best hope for the ‘long peace’ to endure

The concept of a "long peace" was coined by Yale professor John Lewis Gaddis, referring to the 40+ year period post-World War II where no major global conflict erupted between the United States and the Soviet Union. Historically, great powers engaged in destructive wars roughly once per generation prior to 1945, but the Cold War era was marked by a heightened state of preparedness for such conflicts, despite the eventual peaceful resolution.

Gaddis' theory suggests that the era of "long peace" we experienced is an exception in Chinese history, where dynastic cycles of upheaval and regime change have traditionally been the norm. However, since the "reform and opening up" period in 1978, China's primary focus has been on economic development, leading to a prolonged era of stability and prosperity rarely seen in Chinese civilisation.

The question remains whether this current peace can continue. This hinges on the durability of the Sino-American relationship, which has never experienced direct conflict despite occasional diplomatic crises and strategic disagreements. Even with the emergence of the United States as a peer competitor, there has been no outbreak of a full-scale hot war.

While China's nuclear arsenal may continue to expand, the US lacks any incentive to engage in a nuclear arms race with Beijing. The Taiwan Strait remains the most likely flashpoint for conflict, but Beijing's preference for peaceful reunification and the US's reluctance to militarily intervene in distant conflicts create a realistic path towards avoiding such a confrontation.

Nevertheless, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the Russian war in Ukraine demonstrate that even a strong China cannot guarantee world peace. As China's peaceful rise continues, it offers hope that its increasing global influence could contribute to a longer period of stability and prosperity for all nations.