A pact, divided within, with no single threat

The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, recently signed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, outlines a principle of collective defence stating that an armed attack against any one of the three states is considered an attack against all. However, the absence of a shared threat among the signatory nations hinders the effectiveness of this alliance.

While Saudi Arabia and Israel may not officially hold diplomatic ties, they do collaborate on security matters. Additionally, both Pakistan and Turkey have complex relationships with Iran, which has retaliated against Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles. Despite signing a mutual defence pact with Saudi Arabia last year, Pakistan has refrained from military action against Iran in response to its attacks on the kingdom, and likewise, Saudi Arabia did not assist Pakistan during its war with Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.

This pact aims to enhance defence cooperation, intelligence-sharing, and joint weapon production. However, the intricate network of regional relationships and rivalries in West Asia, coupled with shifting American unpredictability, renders the agreement far from a NATO-style alliance. Instead, it functions more as a strategic response to the changing regional order, as well as the influence of Iranian and Israeli military activities, and the shortcomings of the Trump administration in ensuring Gulf state security against these actors.

Each of the three signatories has its own motivations in the region: Riyadh seeks to assert its leadership; the pact deepens Pakistan's involvement in the evolving security landscape; and Ankara aims to expand its security influence in West Asia. India should not be overly concerned about this development. Instead, it should seek to strengthen ties with the regional countries, deepen economic and strategic engagement with the Gulf states, and maintain working relationships amidst the regional rivalries.