US jobs shock gives ringgit a lift, but Hormuz remains the wildcard

On Monday, the ringgit opened stronger against the US dollar following weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data, trading at 4.0875/0925 compared to Friday’s closing rate of 4.0885/0930. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam explained that the July Non-Farm Payrolls fell by 23,000 jobs, contrasting with the forecast of 88,000 new positions.

Additionally, the US Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) dropped to 61.4% after eight consecutive months of decline, while Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.2% in July, indicating a less robust US labor market. As a result, the probability of an interest rate hike at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting reduced to 43.9% from 57% prior to the NFP release.

However, the uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz serves as the wildcard, potentially impacting market sentiment, with the ringgit expected to stay around RM4.07 to RM4.09. Throughout the day, the local currency experienced fluctuations against various major currencies, with a decline against the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound, while trading mixed against regional currencies such as the Singapore dollar, Thai baht, Philippine peso, and Indonesian rupiah.