ODM’s headache: Party faces tough test to retain Nairobi political base

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) faces a significant challenge in retaining its political stronghold in Nairobi as the country prepares for the 2027 General Election. This struggle stems from the recent passing of its former leader, Raila Odinga, who played an instrumental role in maintaining the party's dominance in the city since its inception in 2005.

Odinga's influence was evident in ODM's strong performance in the 2022 General Election, where they secured the Nairobi Senate seat, the Woman Representative position, 38 county assembly seats, and eight parliamentary seats.

Among ODM's Nairobi MPs, TJ Kajwang (Ruaraka), Phelix Odiwuor ('Jalang'o'), Peter Orero (Kibra), Anthony Oluoch (Mathare), Tim Wanyonyi (Westlands), Beatrice Elachi (Embakasi North), George Aladwa (Makadara), and Babu Owino (Embakasi East) were instrumental in the party's success. Additionally, Esther Passaris and Edwin Sifuna won the Woman Representative and Senate seats, respectively, through ODM.

Following Odinga's death, ODM has encountered internal strife, culminating in a split between two factions led by Dr Oburu Oginga and former secretary-general Edwin Sifuna. These internal divisions, coupled with the party's failure to offer Tim Wanyonyi a seat in the Nairobi governorship, have raised concerns among political observers. Wanyonyi, who is now aligned with Sifuna's faction, has publicly stated his intention to contest the Bungoma governorship, citing his disappointment with ODM's decision.

The party's lack of a clear candidate for the Nairobi governorship further complicates its stance. Incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja has been urged to join ODM and seek re-election on its ticket, but party officials insist on a competitive nomination process. Other candidates, like George Aladwa, have expressed their desire to secure the party's presidential running mate position if they are to contest for the Nairobi governorship.

Political analysts have pointed out that ODM's current form has been described as "a shadow of its former self" in Nairobi. The party's ability to maintain its political influence in the capital hinges on its capacity to adapt its strategy and address the internal divisions that threaten its stability. The outcome of the 2027 General Election will undoubtedly be influenced by ODM's ability to navigate these challenges and retain its position within Nairobi's political landscape.