No one gains from a new war front in Yemen

Yemen's military launched a major offensive against Houthi strongholds on multiple fronts following missile and drone strikes that claimed the lives of at least 45 government officials in Marib and Hadhramaut, according to the UN special envoy Hans Grundberg. This latest development raises the prospect of a major new war in Yemen, which could be particularly dangerous as it would occur amidst an existing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.

Saudi Arabia and the US, who previously supported Yemen's fragile peace, are now facing Iranian attacks in the Gulf, while the Houthis have become entangled in the broader regional conflict.

The Bab Al Mandeb strait, a crucial maritime chokepoint, has become increasingly significant due to the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since February. Although Houthi forces have suffered heavy losses, Yemen's anti-Houthi factions still have significant internal divisions to address. Saudi Arabia is working to unify these factions while simultaneously defending its own territory, recently suffering an attack in Najran that left 11 civilians injured.

While the presence of new leadership in Tehran might initially seem to benefit Iran, the reality is that the country is already experiencing immense strain and Tehran has little to gain from a fresh front in Yemen. Washington and Tehran both have strong incentives to prevent an expanded war, which would only further destabilize Iran's precarious situation.

Historically, a 2022 truce in Yemen led to a comprehensive roadmap for a permanent ceasefire, public salaries, and oil revenues, which was only derailed by Iran's involvement in the Gaza conflict. The fundamental reasons for peace in Yemen have remained unchanged, and the Houthis may appear to be gaining from Iran's current resistance to the US, but Tehran is fighting for its own survival with dwindling resources, unlike any time in the group's history.

Yemeni civilians under Houthi control face severe hardships, including unpaid wages, malnutrition, and poor governance. Implementing a settlement that restores salaries and reopens ports would undoubtedly improve the lives of these individuals. As tensions escalate in the region, this peace initiative could provide much-needed momentum towards a more stable and peaceful future for the entire area.