No one gains from a new war front in Yemen

Yemen's armed forces declared a major offensive against Houthi strongholds on multiple fronts on Saturday, following missile and drone strikes that claimed over 45 government lives in Marib and Hadhramaut. UN special envoy Hans Grundberg warns that the nation now stands at its most perilous point for large-scale warfare since the April 2022 truce.

The risk escalates as this conflict intertwines with the broader US, Israel, and Iran rivalry. Saudi Arabia and the US, the earlier guardians of Yemen's fragile peace, are now contending with Iranian assaults in the Gulf. The Houthis have even entered the fray, heightening pressure on Tehran. The importance of maritime routes has intensified; with the Strait of Hormuz crippled since February, the Bab Al Mandeb region has become even more critical.

Despite Houthi losses in personnel and forces, Yemen's anti-Houthi factions face internal disputes. Saudi Arabia endeavors to unify these factions while safeguarding its own land. A Houthi assault in Najran on Friday left 11 civilians injured. Nevertheless, the path to war is not predestined. The US and Iran have every incentive to avert an expanded conflict and must intensify their diplomatic efforts for a Hormuz settlement.

While Tehran might view a new front in Yemen as a means to bolster its influence, the reality is that such an escalation would rapidly destabilize Iran's precarious situation. Washington and Tehran have a mutual interest in averting an expanded war. Diplomacy, similar to the 2022 truce, remains a viable option. The 2022 ceasefire saw success, and in December 2023, Saudi and Omani mediation yielded a roadmap for a permanent ceasefire, public salaries, and oil revenues.

However, this progress stalled when Iran involved its proxies, including the Houthis, in the Gaza conflict. The fundamental conditions for peace in Yemen have remained unchanged. The Houthis may feel empowered by Iran's defiance towards the US, but Tehran is battling for its own survival, with resources more stretched than ever in the group's history.

The plight of Yemenis under Houthi control—unpaid, undernourished, and misgoverned—remains dire. Fresh battles will not alleviate these issues, but a settlement that reinstates salaries and reopens ports would markedly enhance the lives of the people. In a region rife with entrenched conflicts, this scenario presents an invaluable opportunity to generate new momentum towards peace.