Monsoon has revived, but keep an eye on weather

The southwest monsoon season, which runs from June to September, has shown signs of revival despite the presence of the El Niño phenomenon. Cumulative rainfall deficiency in the current season has decreased from 38 per cent in June to 11.5 per cent, and from 22.8 per cent till July 15 to 2.9 per cent by the end of the month. This surprising turnaround is attributed to the formation of four low-pressure systems (LPS) in July, compared to the normal average of three for the month.

These LPSs were active for a total of 24 days in July, as opposed to the normal 14. The monsoon situation has improved, contrary to the India Meteorological Department's prediction of below-normal precipitation for July. The revival has helped narrow the gap in the progressive area sown under kharif crops, which has reduced from 20.8 per cent to the first week of July to 2.9 per cent at month-end.

The recent showers have been particularly beneficial for late plantings of pulses, soyabean, sesamum, and cotton that were previously lagging behind. Additionally, they have provided relief to crops facing moisture stress due to the monsoon's prolonged break. While the kharif season hasn't turned out to be the disaster many feared, it is still crucial for the standing kharif crop to receive a few more good spells of rain in the second half of the month and early September.

The Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal rainfall for the remainder of the monsoon season, due to the continued strengthening of El Niño conditions. The El Niño is expected to become a "very strong" event during the months of October to September and persist through the next quarter, which could have implications for the upcoming rabi or winter-spring crop.

As El Niño's effects often come with a delay, the government must remain vigilant and proactive in managing the supply side to mitigate any potential impacts.