Jeffrey Toobin Lays Out Democrats' Doomsday Scenario for Midterms

Jeffrey Toobin, a veteran legal analyst, has written an op-ed for The New York Times exploring a potential doomsday scenario for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. According to his piece, if Republicans win a narrow majority in the House, then President Donald Trump could attempt to overthrow the election results by removing the clerk of the House, Kevin McCumber, and replacing him with someone more favorable to his agenda.

Toobin spoke with Politics and Culture Director Carlo Versano about the process of compiling the roll of newly elected representatives, which is typically carried out by an official almost nobody outside Washington can name. He explained that if the Democrats narrowly win the House, Trump could pressure Speaker Mike Johnson to fire McCumber and install someone of his choosing, presumably a MAGA ally, to compile a different roll.

The current clerk, Kevin McCumber, was appointed in 2023 and is widely seen as nonpartisan. However, Toobin noted that the powers of an acting clerk are unclear under existing law, and that the courts may not intervene to resolve this issue. He cautioned that the courts have generally applied the political question doctrine to internal congressional matters, treating them as off-limits to judicial review.

Toobin also touched on the issue of voter fraud, noting that while the United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents or National Guard troops have been stationed near polling places, this is more of a psychological tactic aimed at discouraging turnout than stopping fraud. He emphasized that voting is protected by the Constitution and that having military or paramilitary involved in the process would be anathema to most Americans.

Toobin concluded that the entire scenario would only become plausible if the House majority was razor thin, under roughly 10 seats. A significant midterm election, either for Democrats or Republicans, would likely render the fight moot. He also pointed out the broader issue of redistricting, which could further erode political norms and potentially redraw Congress every two years.