Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains bullish, pushing against $4,380 resistance

Gold (XAU/USD) has maintained a bullish outlook, struggling to surpass the $4,380 resistance level. The precious metal experienced a nearly 7.5% surge last week but has now stabilized at the mid-range of the $4,300s. Lower US Treasury yields and reduced Federal Reserve interest rate hikes have contributed to this upward trend. The US Dollar has been weak this week following a weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed a 23,000 decline in net employment in July.

Futures markets have reduced the probability of a September rate hike from 67% to 44%. XAU/USD is currently trading at $4,343, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index reaching overbought levels and the MACD indicating continued upside momentum. Key resistance lies at $4,380, while the late-May high of $4,595 represents a potential target.

On the downside, support is expected at $4,200, followed by the $3,950 bottom of the July trading range. Gold has historically been used as a store of value and a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, with central banks being the largest holders. In 2022, central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth approximately $70 billion to their reserves.