EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Positions above nine-day EMA near 183.00
EUR/JPY rises after registering losses in the previous day, trading around 183.10 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding a capped tone as it sits below the 50-day Exponential moving average (EMA) while clinging to short-term support at the nine-day EMA.
EUR/JPY prices have risen following a loss in the previous day, trading near 183.10 in European hours on Monday. The currency pair is currently below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and near short-term support at the nine-day EMA, indicating a corrective phase within an overall uptrend. Sellers currently hold the upper hand, but the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44 suggests bearish momentum is stabilizing after recent declines.
Societe Generale strategists suggest that recent positioning adjustments in Yen futures are primarily due to official action, not a change in sentiment. The sharp decrease in speculative exposure, with Short Yen CFTC positions dropping to 10.8%, is attributed to the Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention, not increased optimism that the currency has fundamentally turned.
A drop below the nine-day EMA at 183.06 would strengthen the bearish bias and push EUR/JPY lower, potentially reaching the 179.37 regional low from August 3 and the 175.70 nine-month low. Conversely, the cross could face resistance at the 50-day EMA at 184.57. A break above this medium-term moving average would signal bullish momentum and support the currency pair's ascent towards the all-time high of 187.95, set on April 17.
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