From Asia to the Arctic, How Trump’s War Is Pushing His Rivals Closer

Nearly six months after the start of the Iran war, the fallout for the U.S. and its allies is evident. The American military is rapidly depleting its stockpiles of both offensive and defensive missiles, while the flow of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz has dwindled to a trickle. Oil markets continue to grapple with uncertainty regarding the stability of the ceasefire.

By entangling himself in this predicament, Donald Trump has created a vacuum that allows America's rivals and adversaries to reshape global trade to their own advantage. They are exploring alternative routes and strategies to bolster their business connections beyond the turmoil in the Middle East and Washington's purview.

This strategy has also drawn Saudi Arabia, a crucial ally of Washington, into a NATO-style defense alliance that the White House does not participate in. While the U.S. and Europe refrained from confronting Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine directly, their governments swiftly targeted Moscow by severing its ties with the global financial system and imposing a series of sanctions packages aimed at curtailing revenues from oil and gas exports, which are essential for sustaining Russian President Vladimir Putin's war effort.

These sanctions have indeed had an impact. After an initial surge in growth due to the rapid transition of Russian industry to wartime production, Russia's GDP growth forecast for 2026 is projected to range between zero and one percent, with inflation trending toward 7 percent, and businesses grappling with onerous new taxes. This has compelled Putin to distance himself from Europe and lean on the economic powers of the East: China and India.

Attracted by Russia's hydrocarbons to fuel their industrial and economic expansion, these countries collectively acquired over $400 billion worth of Russian oil between February 2022 and January 2026, as reported by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Despite attempts to halt these shipments, Western governments have intensified their resolve to block these tankers.

British forces seized a sanctioned tanker, the Smyrtos, in the English Channel in June, while France intercepted and boarded a suspected shadow-fleet vessel in the Mediterranean. The European Union's latest sanctions package targeted several additional vessels suspected of aiding Russia's oil evasion. In response, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin unveiled a novel approach to maintain trade ties with Eastern partners.

Speaking to TASS news service reporters, Khusnullin suggested that Moscow would investigate the construction of permanent rail links to the Indian Ocean via Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran. Russia already has partial solutions: The International North-South Transport Corridor already connects Moscow to the Indian Ocean through Iran, and the trans-Caspian International Transport Route provides an alternative path through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the Caucasus.

However, both routes are now at risk. Iran is a war zone, whereas Ukraine's powerful deep-strike capabilities and sea-based attack drones have targeted Iranian ships in the Caspian Sea and Russian vessels near the Bosphorus Strait, through which they must navigate to exit the Black Sea. If Moscow successfully transforms these routes into operational trade corridors, Putin will gain a new trade route to Asia largely immune to Ukrainian and Western interference.

As Khusnullin stated: Any options providing access to India are acceptable. The U.S., Europe, and their global partners can impose whatever limitations they wish upon Russia, but certain geographic advantages enjoyed by Russia are beyond the control of Western partners. Along Russia's northern coast lies the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a shipping lane spanning over 3,000 miles and one of three Arctic shipping routes that grow increasingly accessible due to the receding ice.

This route has become appealing to Russian and Asian shippers seeking to bypass sensitive chokepoints such as the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, avoiding the lengthy transit route around the southern tip of South Africa, which adds significant time, distance, and cost to shipping. So far, Russian tankers carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) or metals have been the primary traffic on the NSR, with sporadic instances of bilateral trade between China.

However, that is set to change. This week, China's Sea Legend Shipping company will commence a regular service between China's Ningbo port and the United Kingdom's Felixstowe, with stops in various Chinese and European ports. For Beijing, this route significantly reduces delivery times for Chinese exports to Europe and diminishes its reliance on waters affected by the Iran conflict.

While China is among the countries considering the benefits of the NSR, others are also eager to take advantage. Shortly after Sea Legend Shipping's vessel embarks on its inaugural voyage, South Korea's PanStar Line will dispatch its newly acquired cargo ship, the PanStar Acro, on a trial journey to navigate the NSR from Busan, assessing the feasibility of the route for Seoul.

Undoubtedly, the consequences of war have the most significant impact on Iran's neighbors. Recognizing the leverage derived from its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has not hesitated to target U.S. military installations and critical energy facilities in the Gulf Arab states. These actions have shattered the fragile stability in the region.