Former ambassador warns Australia's ties with China could spiral again

Former Australian ambassador to China, Graham Fletcher, warns in a report that the country's ties with China could once again descend into crisis. Fletcher argues that the government has allowed China's efforts to expand cooperation on infrastructure and artificial intelligence to fall by the wayside, as Beijing's economic coercion demonstrated its tendency to exploit leverage during times of political need.

The ambassador asserts that Australia and China possess fundamentally different visions for the region, making a close relationship implausible. Despite the current stability, Fletcher notes that the relationship remains fragile and vulnerable to shocks, with Canberra viewing stability as a goal rather than a certainty. He suggests that a series of serious disagreements left unaddressed could lead to another downward spiral in the relationship.

Fletcher warns that the Port of Darwin controversy may ignite trouble, as Beijing grows increasingly resistant to EU and US security restrictions on its technology and investments. Additionally, Fletcher points to the potential for unrest or political crisis in Pacific Islands to exacerbate the ongoing contest for influence between Australia and China, each pursuing distinct outcomes with uniformed personnel on the ground.