Federal Reserve: Sideways growth and sticky inflation – TD Securities
TD Securities’ US economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect US output growth to move sideways in 2026 as the lingering Oil shock and Iran-related risks keep the Federal Reserve on hold through year-end.
TD Securities' US economists forecast US output growth to remain stagnant in 2026 due to an ongoing oil shock and Iran-related risks. They predict GDP growth slightly below trend, unemployment near 4.3%, and core inflation remaining above 2%, with disinflation only resuming in 2027. The lingering impact of the oil shock and stagflationary risks from the Iran conflict are expected to keep the Federal Reserve on hold throughout the year.
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