Can Ruto and Gachagua strike a 2027 pre-election deal?

Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has questioned former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua about a potential pre-election pact with President William Ruto ahead of the 2027 General Election. Gachagua was asked to swear on PCEA Church leaders that he had not negotiated any agreement with Ruto prior to August 10, 2027. This challenge highlights the central issue surrounding the upcoming race: can two politicians who formed the winning coalition in 2022, despite their current differences, reconcile and return to the same political fold?

Gachagua and Ruto are no longer allies, their rift leading to the formation of separate political entities. However, politics is ever-changing, and the possibility of a Ruto-Gachagua deal is not entirely out of the question. Both men have compelling reasons to engage in such an arrangement. In the 2022 election, Ruto garnered substantial support from Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Embu, Meru, and Tharaka-Nithi, while Gachagua's rise was partly fueled by the argument that he was sidelined after helping Ruto secure the region's votes.

However, the idea of replicating the 2022 numbers is a flawed assumption, as Mt Kenya is not a fixed political entity that can be easily redistributed. Gachagua's supporters see his removal from government as evidence of a broken political arrangement, while Ruto's base has focused on moving past the former deputy president. Trust remains a significant hurdle in any potential deal, as Gachagua's supporters have built a narrative around betrayal, and Ruto's supporters have cultivated a story of separation that may not translate into renewed voter loyalty.

Kuria's challenge underscores the real question at hand: can Ruto and Gachagua convince millions of voters that their reconciliation will be beneficial to their interests? While a potential deal could reshape the 2027 election, it cannot guarantee that each man will secure the votes he desires. Kenyan voters are highly politically active, and they are unlikely to be treated as mere political assets. The final agreement among these politicians will be determined at the ballot box, not in a boardroom.