Asia stocks gain, oil up amid Gulf confusion
Asian share markets followed Wall Street's gains on Monday, buoyed by a subdued U.S. jobs report that reduced concerns of an imminent rise in borrowing costs. However, oil prices edged higher due to the absence of advancements in Gulf peace negotiations. Iran revealed that a deal with Oman to designate new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz was nearing completion, but insisted that the waterway would reopen only upon the United States fulfilling certain conditions.
Brent crude climbed 1.0% to $84.40 a barrel as trade through the critical waterway continued to be minimal, while U.S. crude rose 0.8% to $78.80 a barrel. The escalating fuel costs add pressure on the upcoming U.S. July consumer price report on Wednesday, with analysts anticipating a 0.1% rise in the headline and 0.2% increase in core figures.
A positive surprise could reignite speculation of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting; however, Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, believes a 0.22% forecast for core CPI might not be sufficient to trigger a hike. The futures market has reduced the probability of a September increase to approximately 44%, down from 67% a week earlier.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields increased slightly to 4.662%, with markets anticipating $125 billion in fresh issuance this week. The decline in yields and the overall improvement in risk has led to a broader weakness in the U.S. dollar, with the euro nearing a seven-week peak at $1.1554. Gold maintained its level around $4,320 an ounce, having surged more than 7% last week.
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