Russia planning major strikes on Kyiv energy grid ahead of winter

Russia is set to launch a significant assault on Kyiv's power grid in the forthcoming weeks, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The analysis, based on data from Ukraine's Center for Strategic Communications and U.S. intelligence, suggests the Russian military is preparing a major campaign targeting the Ukrainian capital's energy infrastructure ahead of the nation's Independence Day on August 24.

In order to maximize destruction, Russia may utilize its strategic stockpile of ballistic missiles, as per the report. Analysts from the think tank contend that Russia might initiate its strike campaign in August to capitalize on Ukraine's diminished supply of ballistic missile interceptors. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently revealed that Ukraine is currently procuring approximately one-third fewer ballistic missile interceptors than this time last year.

The ISW analysts also estimate that Russian ballistic strikes on Kyiv's energy infrastructure would likely inflict considerable damage, hindering Ukraine's attempts to repair and reinforce weakened energy facilities damaged during the winter of 2025-2026. Moscow may commence the strikes earlier than anticipated to prevent Ukraine from completing repairs, the analysts added.

Additionally, Russia is expected to continue targeting Ukraine's energy facilities throughout the winter, potentially employing a combination of ballistic missiles and attack drones in these strikes. In an interview with Politico on August 3, Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal expressed hope that the conflict could conclude by fall, citing Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory and Western sanctions as potential catalysts for peace.

Otherwise, Shmyhal warned, Ukraine faces another winter of Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure, expressing concern that Russia may aim to severely damage Ukraine's water supply system ahead of winter.