Global LNG and natural gas prices surge as US and Iran resume hot war
With the Strait of Hormuz closed once again and hostilities between Iran and the US renewed, Kpler Insight has adjusted our LNG supply base case forecast to reflect a more prolonged conflict scenario. We now expect traffic through the Strait to remain severely constrained through the rest of the year, recovering throughout Q1 2027. Already, ...
The Strait of Hormuz has once again been closed and hostilities between Iran and the United States have resumed, leading Kpler Insight to revise its LNG supply base case forecast. The company now predicts that traffic through the Strait will remain severely restricted for the remainder of the year, with recovery beginning in Q1 2027.
As a result, TTF and Asian LNG prices have surged in recent days due to the Middle East conflict causing a scarcity of supply. Europe and Asia are vying for limited LNG availability, driving up prices. The European TTF front-month price outlook is currently bullish, with European buyers likely to compete for Atlantic Basin LNG amid ongoing Middle East tensions and a potential decrease in near-term US LNG exports due to Tropical Storm Bertha.
Kpler Insight anticipates a decline in LNG imports, stable pipeline supply, and steady gas consumption. Meanwhile, Asian LNG prices are expected to be slightly bullish, but the prolonged conflict in the Hormuz scenario tightens the prompt balance, leading to lower Qatari exports in September through December. The Asian LNG-TTF spread is forecast to narrow slightly, as TTF is expected to see a sharper increase relative to Asian LNG.
US Henry Hub front-month price outlook remains stable, with strong production, robust storage levels, and weak demand. Europe's Middle East tensions continue to drive bullish pressure on TTF, as attacks across the region and decreased loadings at Qatar's Ras Laffan contribute to a longer-term supply disruption in the Middle East Gulf.
The TTF front-month contract has reached its highest close since January 2023, with European buyers bidding higher for LNG supply from the Atlantic Basin amid worsening Middle East conflict and potential temporary declines in US LNG exports. Kpler Insight maintains a bullish outlook for the TTF front-month contract, expecting European buyers to bid higher for LNG supply from the Atlantic Basin amid deteriorating Middle East conflict and a potential decline in US LNG exports.
Written by urgent.news from Hellenic Shipping News's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
