El crédito a las empresas vuelve, pero no a todas por igual

Spain has bid farewell to the long journey of corporate deleveraging. Since mid-2024, the credit balance for economic activities has started to grow again, reaching a 3.6% year-on-year increase in March 2026. After a decade of adjustment, the trend reversal is evident, though it's not a widespread expansion. Corporate financing is increasing, but it's still below the nominal GDP, which grew by 6% year-on-year in the first quarter, keeping its relative weight low.

The recovery is uneven: while credit to the primary sector grows by 2.2%, it falls by 2.1% for industry and 1.1% for construction. Deleveraging hasn't ended for many companies; it has simply lost its dominance in the aggregate. The most favorable services are those in the hotel, financial intermediation, property promotion, and other sectors, which together account for nearly 74% of corporate credit and are growing at a rate of 5.4%.

Hospitality, financial intermediation, real estate promotion, and other sectors are also advancing, while trade and transportation continue to reduce credit. This evolution reflects an economy that is becoming increasingly service-oriented. According to the survey of banking loans conducted by the Bank of Spain, criteria for granting credit have become slightly stricter in trade and construction, and a bit more so in manufacturing, especially among energy-intensive companies and vehicle manufacturers.

On the demand side, applications have decreased in the industry, particularly in these segments, while they have slightly increased in construction and real estate. This suggests that the weaker industrial dynamics are due not only to somewhat tighter criteria but also to a weaker demand for financing. Looking ahead, no significant changes in granting criteria are expected, except for a moderate tightening in vehicle manufacturing.

Demand is expected to remain stable in most sectors, except for energy-intensive industry and the automotive sector, where it will continue to weaken slightly. This diagnosis aligns with the survey of companies, which does not indicate difficulties in accessing credit, expects improvement, and also points to a lower "downward demand".

Moving forward, credit will grow if private investment picks up, especially in sectors that need to expand capacity, digitalize processes, improve energy efficiency, replace equipment, or promote housing construction. In fact, loans with a maturity of more than five years are already the most dynamic, a signal compatible with the recovery of investment projects.

The outlook is favorable, but the widespread recovery of credit will depend on companies finding incentives to invest. This requires confidence, regulatory certainty, and investment projects with expectations of profitability.