China-Australia relations reach ‘good enough’ baseline, ex-envoy says
After years of strain, China-Australia ties have reached a “good enough” baseline for Canberra, though still short of Beijing’s broader ambitions, according to a former top Australian diplomat. The relationship had taken a significant downturn since 2017, but was now on “a more realistic footing”, Graham Fletcher, a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank, wrote in a…
China and Australia's diplomatic ties have stabilized to a satisfactory level, according to a former Australian envoy. Graham Fletcher, who served as Australia's ambassador to China from 2019 to 2023, outlined this improved relationship in a recent report. The once strained partnership, which experienced a significant decline starting in 2017, has now reached a more stable footing.
While deep-rooted security concerns persist, particularly in regions like the South China Sea, the relationship has shown progress in other areas.
Despite these improvements, Fletcher notes that the relationship has not expanded beyond this stabilization point. Beijing continues to harbor ambitions for deeper cooperation, particularly in sectors such as artificial intelligence, green energy, and quantum technology. However, Canberra remains focused on maintaining the existing pillars of the relationship, weighing potential risks against the benefits of further engagement.
The report highlights two significant risks to the Australia-China relationship. The first involves disagreements that cannot be resolved, such as Beijing's opposition to foreign restrictions on its technology and investment. Canberra is also wary of potential political unrest in the Pacific Islands and China's claim over the Port of Darwin, a lease held by the Chinese company Landbridge Group.
Fletcher warns that a more significant crisis, like an internal conflict within China or a military confrontation with Taiwan, could further strain the relationship.
As Fletcher points out, the stability of the Australia-China relationship remains uncertain, depending on the unpredictable dynamics of the international context. Both countries must navigate their complex relationship, balancing mutual interests with the risks of deeper involvement.
Written by urgent.news from South China Morning Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — it may contain errors, so check the original before relying on it.
