Can Europe stay united in China trade battle? Ceuta migrant crisis offers a warning

The European Union faced a crisis that tested its unity and ability to stand strong in the face of external pressure. The story began on July 30 when an estimated 72,000 mainly Moroccan migrants broke through Spain's border controls in Ceuta, a Spanish territory in North Africa. At least 75 people died, mostly at sea, with Spain estimating over 100 fatalities.

Spain's open-border policy was viewed as a security threat by several EU members, with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suspending the Schengen agreement with Madrid. Other countries, including Finland, Denmark, and Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis, echoed Meloni's concerns and called for Spain to be suspended from the Schengen agreement.

After initial criticisms, member states later softened their stance, but tensions resurfaced when Spain imposed border checks on air and sea travel from Italy. This episode may seem peripheral to the EU's trade disputes with China, but it highlights the importance of solidarity among member states in confronting China, particularly as Beijing prepares retaliatory measures.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the need for a united European response, but the Ceuta crisis showed that divisions can quickly emerge when one member state is under attack.

Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, known for his progressive policies and frequent visits to China, may play a crucial role in any future conflict with China. His open approach towards Beijing has made him an outlier among EU leaders, who generally advocate for a tougher stance on China. Sanchez's visit to Spain has also attracted Chinese investment in its electric vehicle supply chain, further complicating the issue.

The crisis serves as a "stress test" for EU states, raising questions about their preparedness to absorb costs for each other in a trade conflict with China. Commission trade officials are working on a solidarity mechanism to protect companies targeted in a trade war, but the divisions highlighted by the Ceuta crisis may prove challenging for the EU to overcome.