How Beijing’s hypersonic ‘carrier killers’ could distract US forces in a Taiwan conflict

Beijing's development and diversification of anti-ship missile platforms, particularly hypersonic ones, have enhanced its capacity to deny access to the first island chain, potentially diverting US and allied naval forces from a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, according to experts. Recently, CCTV showcased a Type 052D destroyer firing a YJ-20 hypersonic anti-ship missile from its vertical launch system, demonstrating the People's Liberation Army Navy's growing ability to target surface combatants.

This hypersonic missile is one of several anti-ship missile varieties unveiled during a large-scale military parade in Beijing last September, highlighting China's strategic focus on establishing robust anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities in its coastal waters and the first island chain. The first island chain, running from Japan to Borneo, includes Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory to be eventually reunited by force, if necessary.

Analysts argue that Beijing is producing these anti-ship missiles to keep the US Pacific Fleet at a distance, allowing the PLA time to "settle matters in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea or wherever the contingency might be". Despite potentially being inferior in a ship-for-ship, weapon-for-weapon comparison, the PLA Navy's strategy is to concentrate its combat power against a fraction of the enemy's forces.

China's emphasis on sea denial, distributed lethality, and preventing adversaries from operating freely within the first island chain reflects a broader military modernisation drive. The US has yet to equip its submarines with hypersonic anti-ship missiles, but Beijing has made significant strides in this area, with the YJ-19 being the first sea-based hypersonic anti-ship missile to have entered mass production and being deployed aboard the PLA Navy's Type 039B submarine.